Mohammed Amini

It’s been nearly 40 days since the protests started all over Iran, protests that some call revolution and others call it “the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic”.

Although these protests took place in response to the murder of Zhina (Mahsa) Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish girl, beyond a lawsuit for this Kurdish girl and beyond the fight against gender discrimination and forced hijab, it actually turned into a movement whose ultimate goal is the downfall of the islamic republican system.
In the 43 years of the Islamic Republic’s rule, the government has continued its life by suppressing freedom and creating crisis.
In the past 10 years, with the intensification of international pressures and the economic blockade, the living conditions of the people have been in the worst state, high unemployment, poverty, high cost and corruption in executive institutions, class gap, environmental destruction, lowering the level of public services and most importantly The decrease in the level of social security and the decline of Iran’s prestige in the world has caused public anger against the regime to exist and is increasing.

Until 2009, when there was still hope for reforms in Iran, the regime buried the hope for reforms forever by interfering in the election results in favor of the radical faction and severely suppressing the protesters and house arrest of two reformist leaders (Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi). did
With the death of hope for reforms, the murmur of system change rose.
During this period, the intensification of the economic blockade and the huge expenses of the Iranian regime for intervention in the Middle East provoked the anger of the Iranian people and strengthened the hope for the change of the system.

In 2019, protestors broke all the red lines of the Islamic Republic and chanted directly against the regime leader in protest against the increase in gasoline prices. Although these protests were brutally suppressed, the breaking of the wall of fear caused the people’s anger to rekindle three years later like a fire under the ashes, and this time to cover the entire geography of Iran.
Despite all the necessary factors for this public uprising to come to fruition, the lack of a suitable alternative for the Islamic Republic is the weak point and the Achilles heel of realizing the desire to change the system.
Currently, there are two options for replacing the Islamic Republic system:
Royalists: People who hope that the royal system will return to Iran and Reza Pahlavi, the prince of Iran, will return to the throne. This spectrum, which is supported by a high capacity and has a lot of financial power, is facing a fundamental problem, this system has already been tested and has not provided any coherent and different plan for political, social and economic problems and crises.

The slogan “Death to the tyrant, whatever the king, whatever the leader” is actually a reminder of the Iranian experience of the royal system.

People’s Mojahedin: an opposition organization that has the experience of armed struggle against the Iranian regime. This organization, which is the Islamic left, is similar to the government of the Islamic Republic in many ways, and within the organization, dictatorship and oppression of women are seen. Therefore, there are many people who have no hope for this organization.

On the other hand, Iran, as a multi-ethnic country with the most ethnic, religious and religious diversity, and nations such as Kurds, Turks, Baloch and Arabs want their own national rights, are actually against any centralized system in the future of Iran. Therefore, the parties and activists of these nations have no hope for the Royalists and the People’s Mojahedin, who are actually centrist.

What Iranians want in general is a secular and democratic system. In the meantime, Kurdish, Baluch, Arab and Turkish nations in Iran want a pluralistic and non-centralist system, in which the rights system of Iranian nationalities is provided within the framework of an autonomous or federal system, a demand that the centrist forces under the threat of secession are against with it.

Therefore, until the replacement options of the Islamic Republic system are adjusted to the reality of the recent movement and the understanding of the wishes of all the people of Iran, these protests are unlikely to bear fruit in the short term.

The revolution has started in Iran, if this recent uprising is not the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will undoubtedly be the beginning of the end of this system. Provided that a secular, progressive, pluralist alternative can gain the trust of all Iranians. especially to gain the trust of women, who took the leadership of these protests with the slogan “woman, life, freedom”.