Once again, the Iraqi parliament did not convene to elect a president due to a lack of quorum, and Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of last October’s largest winning party, rejected any compromise with forces close to Iran.
The current political problem in Iraq is not the election of a president. The post of president is the share of the Kurds, this time as in 2018, the KDP wants to take this post, but the Patriotic Union, which has held this post since 2005, considers the presidency its right.
The real stalemate is that the KDP is in an alliance with Sunnis and Muqtada al-Sadr, and these three coalitions are candidates for both the prime minister and the presidency: Muqtada al-Sadr’s cousin Jafar al-Sadr to form a government and Riber Ahmed a candidate of Kurdistan Democratic Party for the presidency.
If the tripartite coalition wins a parliamentary vote of confidence in the presidential candidate, the way will be paved for the coalition to form a government.
On the other hand, the tripartite coalition led by Muqtada al-Sadr calls for the formation of a majority government. This is in contrast to previous governments, which were diverse and included representatives of a large part of the political forces present in parliament.
The “Coordination Framework” coalition, which is made up of forces close to Iran, calls for the formation of a comprehensive and diverse government.
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has the same dream and is trying to use the power of this coalition in order to continue the presence of its candidate, Barham Saleh, in the Salam Palace.
Today, Muqtada al-Sadr rejected any compromise with the Coordinating Forces in a message, insisting on the formation of a majority government, after failing to meet the legal quorum due to the lack of a quorum.
According to recent events, the scenarios facing the political process in Iraq are:
Re-election: which is one of the possibilities, although the possibility seems far-fetched.
The agreement between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of kurdistan on one candidate-Latif Rashid- seems far-fetched at this time. Both parties see the acquisition of the Iraqi post as a matter of prestige.
Turning Sadr into an Opposition: This is something that has often been considered probable.
The continuation of the incumbent President Saleh and Mustafa Kadhemi in their posts is one of the closest possibilities, and it means the continuation of the previous inclusive government system.
If the option of forming a government is chosen by forces close to Iran and the forces affiliated with Sadr turn into the opposition, the Sunnis and the Democratic Party will undoubtedly join the government, which means the death of the three-party coalition.
Beyond all these predictions, what is certain is that the marathon of forming a new government in Iraq will be breathtaking and will not end in the near future.
Unlike in previous periods, when only two foreign powers, Iran and the United States, were involved in forming the Iraqi government, this time Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which are supporters of the tripartite coalition, are noticeable and the agreement of these foreign powers will take time. .