The “top secret” document, leaked from a meeting of the Working Group on the Prevention of Basic Livelihood Security Crises, stated that “society is in a state of subcutaneous explosion” and that social unrest has risen “300 percent” in the past year.
This document, which was provided to Radio Farda by the cyber group “Adalat Ali”, is the full text of the seven-page minutes of 30 Aban 2021 of Sarollah base, which was chaired by Brigadier General Hossein Nejat, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC in the camp. Tehran Prosecutor’s Office, Tehran Intelligence Organization, NAJA Intelligence and Public Security Police, Basij Economic Intelligence, Hazrat Seyyed Al-Shohada Corps, Hazrat Rasool Corps, Basij Guilds and IRGC Intelligence Organization were present.
The IRGC’s Sarollah base is one of the main institutions responsible for suppressing protests in the country. Sarollah Camp is the most important security base in the capital of the Islamic Republic, which is responsible for protecting Tehran and important government institutions based in Tehran from any danger, including riots and widespread anti-government protests or military threats against the government, such as coups.
Given that the commander of Sarollah base is the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, and that he usually does not have the opportunity to command directly at Sarollah base, in practice he delegates his command authority to his successor.
“Society is in a state of subcutaneous explosion”
Mohammadi, the social deputy of the IRGC intelligence organization, was one of the participants in the meeting, who said: “A survey has been conducted in the community which shows that the situation of the community is in a state of subcutaneous explosion.”
Referring to the rise of the principled government of Ibrahim Raisi, he claimed that “the indicators of national trust were restored” at first, but went on to say that “several shocks in recent months have cast doubt on whether this government can or cannot.”
Mohammadi stated that “the situation of the car and the stock market has caused the indicators of trust in the government to be severely shaken” and “now 53% of the society is skeptical about the claim of the government”.
The IRGC official said that “social discontent has increased by about 300 percent over the past year” and that protests in Iran have focused on “inflation, legal arrears, social unrest and water.”
Mohammadi added that regarding the 4,200 Toman currency, “an incomplete policy package is being made” and on the other hand, “differences in narrations raise doubts that these factors have increased hoarding, drug retention and drug price increases.”
The IRGC official further referred to the injection of corona vaccine in the country and said that “about 7,000 corona injection stations were set up and the health network members injected them as forced overtime, but their overtime has not been paid, which can be injected.” “Facing the third dose with civil disobedience.”
Predicting protests in the final months of the year
At this meeting, “Colonel Kaviani from the NAJA Intelligence and Public Security Police” presented a report on the forecasts for the protests in the last four months of 1400 and said that “rallies in 1400 increased by 48% compared to 1399 and the number of demonstrators increased by 98%. “It has grown.”
He added: “Basic economic gatherings have increased by 56% compared to last year. “Rallies in working-class environments have increased by 136 percent, and most of the venues have been in front of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Ministry of Labor.”
According to Colonel Kaviani, “the time of the rally was between 9 and 11:30 in the morning, and the largest rally was held on Sundays to Wednesdays.”
The police official said: “We have witnessed the largest gathering from July to October 1, January and February [2020]. “Summer and autumn and mid-autumn have the largest accumulation of the basic economy.”
He stated that “most of the crimes of the basic economy have been committed in the second police station (market and parliament).”
Col. Kaviani noted that “annual inflation has increased by about 19.4 percent from September 1999 to September 2021. (If security and comfort are compromised, it will lead to insecurity).”
He also reported a percentage increase in the prices of basic goods and said that the real inflation rate of basic food items in November this year compared to November 2019 was between 86 and 268 percent.
These figures are much higher than the official reports of the Statistics Center and other government agencies on food inflation.
The NAJA commander estimates that the real inflation of protein items such as mutton is 70%, beef 113%, fish 188%, chicken 138% and eggs 186%.
He said that due to the significant increase in prices, meat, poultry and grains have been replaced by soy, and domestic and foreign rice, which has risen in price by 133 to 222 percent, has been replaced by pasta.
“In the last four months of the year, 55 trade union rallies are expected,” said the police intelligence and public security official. “The union gathering will grow by 22% compared to last year by the end of the year.”
Colonel Kaviani warned that “if we do not manage the elimination of the preferred currency and the new wave of rising prices intelligently, it could be the driver of an economic crisis.”
He presented five proposals calling for “division of labor among members of the information society in the field of basic livelihood issues and their accountability”, “proposal to state-level officials regarding the provision of basic necessities and psychological relief to society” and “Managers of the country with the aim of reducing errors.”